Duncan's political future shaky after diagnosis

2006 gubernatorial hopeful dropped out citing depression

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Citing clinical depression, Duncan left the campaign abruptly in June 2006.

Amid the sad partings and good wishes, Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert, Prince George's) noted, "I'm confident that this is not the last time you'll see Doug Duncan."

Fast-forward to 2009, and Duncan is back on the scene — only this time he's talking mental health, not politics. And his audiences aren't particularly interested in his tax policies.

But the charismatic persona and focus that were evident throughout his political past are still there, as is the possibility that he could re-enter politics.

The question, however, is, does he want to? Is there a place for him? And, perhaps most important, could he win?

"What he has in mind, I don't know," said Stuart O. Simms, Duncan's running mate in the gubernatorial race. "Whether voters will be attracted because of any substantive presentation that he makes, I think the jury is certainly still out there. It's hard to predict four to eight years down the road who will be in races and who will be out of races."

And it's hard to get a straight answer from Duncan.

At a mental health event last month in Montgomery County, Duncan spoke openly about his illness, treatment and current "well" state.

He received help for his clinical depression through Kaiser, including a regimen of anti-depression drugs. Duncan previously has spoken about his family's history of mental health problems.

"You know when you're feeling good, and you know when you're feeling bad. I'm in a better place than I was back then," he said last month about his time on the campaign trail, when the day-to-day stresses proved too great.

When the conversation turned to politics, Duncan was more guarded, choosing to answer questions about a possible return with clichés such as, "Never say never" and "You can't rule anything out."

For the most part, a Duncan re-emergence would be welcomed, said political observers and party faithful, but the road back would be rutted.

"He is highly regarded statewide and is popular in Montgomery County, particularly," said Stanton Gildenhorn, former Democratic Party chairman in Montgomery County. "He is the father of the revitalization of downtown Silver Spring and Rockville, which are monuments to his administration. But Doug has to make a decision on what is best for Doug, and is he ready to get back into the day-to-day rigmarole of politics."

These days, Duncan, 53, is involved in the day-to-day rigmarole of government consulting, as vice president for CivicUS, which provides public safety and homeland security research services.

Before that — and after taking time off for treatment — the former executive held an administrative job at the University of Maryland, College Park. But that tenure was cut short after disagreements with the O'Malley administration, and Duncan resigned under murky circumstances.

"Doug is out, and as a general proposition, once people are out they tend to stay out [of politics]," said Steven A. Silverman, Montgomery County's economic development director and former county councilman, a Duncan ally.

Still, Duncan's role with CivicUS has thrust him back to work with many of the government officials he dealt with as county executive. If that stokes a desire to get back into politics, Duncan could have a problem in the long run, said Matthew Crenson, a professor emeritus of political science at Johns Hopkins University. Perhaps unfairly, the problem would stem from the reason for his departure from the governor's race, Crenson said.

Duncan surprised Crenson when he withdrew from the race.

"He could have made up a lot of other stories [other than depression] that would have hurt him less," Crenson said. "I think by being honest he hurt himself."

And he hurt his fundraising prospects, Crenson said.

"I think the issue of depression may come in," he said. "Donors may not want to contribute to a campaign that may not be completed."

With the crowded landscape of the state's current Democratic Party, Duncan's choices of office also would be limited.

"He's clearly got lots of talent and lots of experience," said Laslo Boyd, a partner in the polling firm Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies of Annapolis and a contributor to the Independent's sister papers, the Gazettes. "But I don't see him running for county executive again, and I don't think there are legislative seats open. Is there something for him to run for? Who knows?"

If U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski weren't running for re-election, and U.S. Rep. Christopher Van Hollen (D-Md., 8th) decided to seek her Senate sate, the resulting congressional opening would be a possibility for Duncan, Gildenhorn said. "While former executives and governors used to leading do not usually return to legislative seats," he said, "there's a little magic in a congressional seat."

Crenson agreed.

The collegial aspect of governing that comes with a legislative seat would make it easier for voters and other leaders to discount Duncan's personal problems, "because the whole show wouldn't depend on him," Crenson said.

But with Mikulski (D) recently announcing a re-election bid, that scenario is unlikely.

"In terms of [Maryland] attorney general and comptroller, we already have a Montgomery Countian in those positions," Gildenhorn said. "I think his options are fairly narrow, and that is one of the reasons why he may be seeking political advice."

If Duncan, who lives with his wife, Barbara, in Rockville, where they raised five children, is looking for advice, his gubernatorial supporter, Kurt L. Schmoke, recommends giving the people what they want: information.

"After Doug dropped out, I questioned how much I knew him. I knew him politically, but I didn't know much about his personal story," said Schmoke, dean of Howard University's law school and a former Baltimore mayor. Their acquaintance goes back to Duncan's time as Rockville mayor.

"If he intends to get back in [politics], he'd probably have to talk a little more about his personal story," Schmoke said.

"Doug shows us just part of him," Schmoke continued. "And the question people are going to want to know is, ‘Doug, what were you holding back from us?'"

jdavis@gazette.net